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Why Kobani Must Be Saved From #ISIS

Kobani, Syria, on Oct. 22.Kobani, Syria, on Oct. 22. Credit Lefteris Pitarakis/Associated Press

If Kobani survives, it will have defied the odds. This embattled city on Syria’s northern border with Turkey has been on the verge of falling for weeks in the face of a brutal siege by the Islamic State militants. But the Syrian Kurds who call Kobani home continue to fight hard, and on Sunday the United States made airdrops of weapons and other supplies to bolster them.

The town, once dismissed as inconsequential by American commanders, has become not only a focus of the American operation against the Islamic State, known as ISIS, but also a test of the administration’s strategy, which is based on airstrikes on ISIS-controlled areas in Syria and reliance on local ground forces to defeat the militants. A major problem is that the local ground forces are either unorganized, politically divided or, as in the case of the Kobani Kurds, in danger of being outgunned.

A setback in Kobani would show the fragility of the American plan and hand the Islamic State an important victory. Given Kobani’s location next to Turkey, the town’s fall would put the Islamic State in a position to cross the border and directly threaten a NATO ally, a move that could force the alliance to come to Turkey’s defense.

The big missing piece in the American operation is Turkey, whose reluctance to assist Kobani’s Kurds highlights the enduring weaknesses in America’s strategy. The decision to resupply the Kurds was a desperation move; the Kurds were at risk and Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has refused to help despite repeated entreaties from Washington.

Only on Monday, after the American airdrop, did Turkey say it would allow Iraqi Kurdish forces, the pesh merga militia, to cross Turkey into Kobani. So far, however, no reinforcements of forces have reached Kobani by way of Turkey and Mr. Erdogan made it clear on Thursday that he is only prepared to let 200 pesh merga travel through his country — hardly enough when the Islamic State reportedly has about 1,000 militants in the area. .

Turkey has been a troublesome NATO ally in the best of times. Its insistence that Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, is a bigger threat than the Islamic State and its complicated relationships with various Kurdish groups have made matters worse. Turkey has long enabled the Islamic State, whose original objective was to overthrow the Assad regime, by permitting militants, weapons and money to cross its border into Syria.

Now that the United States is leading the fight against the Islamic State, Turkey says it will work with the Americans. Yet it balks at helping Kurdish fighters in Kobani because it fears this would also strengthen the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (or P.K.K.) inside Turkey. The P.K.K. has been fighting a bitter, separatist war against the Turkish government for three decades, though recently the two sides have engaged in peace talks. It is hard to see what Mr. Erdogan gains by angering the Americans or by angering the Kurds in Iraq, the one Kurdish group with which Turkey has had good relations. Its refusal to assist also jeopardizes the nascent peace talks with the P.K.K.

There were many unknowns when President Obama began a premature and ill-advised mission into Syria. The failure to secure the full cooperation of an important ally leaves the success of the fight against the Islamic State increasingly open to question.

The New York Times.

#NATO – #Georgia future; Kremlin-backed insurgents in Ukraine alarms Georgia over #Russia

Irakly Alasania added that country will never bow to the Russians … to a ‘dictate’ from Russia on what is better for Georgia.

Ukraine Today

Georgia will defy any Russian pressure not to host a NATO training centre on its territory or to strengthen its ties with the West, according to the country’s Defense Minister.

Defense Minister says Georgia needs stability to develop the economy.

Syrian Kurds Gain Importance In Campaign Against #ISIS

Syrian Kurdish men, fled from clashes between the Islamic State militants and PYD forces in Kobani, at refugee camp near Turkey's Syrian border.Syrian Kurdish men, fled from clashes between the Islamic State militants and PYD forces in Kobani, at refugee camp near Turkey’s Syrian border. (Murat Kula/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images) | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Akbar Shahid Ahmed reporting,

WASHINGTON — After more than a month of being outnumbered and outgunned, facing likely doom in Kobani, Kurdish fighters have begun to turn the tide against Islamic State militants with help from airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition.

The U.S. has said the strikes are intended to aid Kobani’s defenders. But it has been reluctant to admit the likely reason for the recent success against ISIS: Unprecedented new coordination between Washington and the main Syrian Kurdish organization, the PYD.

Such cooperation represents a significant development in U.S. strategy in Syria and the Middle East, Syria watchers told The Huffington Post. As the U.S. develops a tactical relationship with the Syrian Kurds, it must rapidly consider the role the group will play in the coalition against ISIS, the PYD’s future political goals, and ways to help the group without further destabilizing the region, experts said.

The strongest new confirmation that the U.S. has decided to work with the PYD comes from a senior Department of Defense official interviewed by The New York Times. The official, granted anonymity by The Times, revealed that “a system had been devised that allowed Kurdish fighters to help American mission planners pinpoint Islamic State targets. “

The information from the PYD fighters is matched against intelligence from satellite and drone images, electronic interception, and other sources before strikes are launched, the official told the Times.

A Pentagon spokesman said Tuesday he had no information to share on cooperation with the Syrian Kurds, suggesting the U.S. wants to keep its coordination under wraps for now.

On Thursday, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said U.S. officials had met with the PYD for the first time over the weekend. (Indirect communications have been ongoing for years, Foreign Policy revealed earlier this month.) Psaki said she expects continued engagement — but she, too, downplayed any suggestion of coordination.

The details revealed in the Times corroborate the claims of Iraqi Kurdish leaders, who told The Wall Street Journal that the strikes that have helped Kobani are linked to increased activity and coordination at operations centers they run with the U.S. The Journal noted that coalition airstrikes around Kobani increased this week after a delegation from Kobani visited the Iraqi Kurdish region.

Recent reports about U.S.-PYD cooperation have been contradictory. The Kurdish outlet BasNews suggested such cooperation six days ago, saying the Iraqi Kurds acted as middlemen, receiving information from the PYD and then identifying targets with the U.S. Air Force. A spokesman for the PYD-linked fighting force in Kobani told independent Kurdish analyst Mutlu Civiroglu on Tuesday that the Syrian Kurds had direct contact with the U.S.-led coalition.

Cooperation with the PYD is tricky for the U.S. It has previously avoided the group out of consideration for its only NATO ally in the region, Turkey. Turkey distrusts the PYD for its efforts to create a Kurdish state in northern Syria and for its close ties to the PKK, the organization of Turkish Kurds that waged a decades-long war against the Turkish state.

The Turkish government has refrained from helping the Syrian Kurds despite international criticism, domestic unrest and the fact that Kobani’s suffering is visible from Turkish territory. The PKK, the PYD’s sister organization, remains on the U.S. list of terrorist organizations, which Psaki noted Thursday.

Henri Barkey, a professor of international relations at Lehigh University and former State Department official, told The Huffington Post that when it comes to the PKK, “we are more royalist than the king, in that the Turks are talking to the PKK [in a peace process after the civil war], and we are not talking to the PKK.”

Still, administration officials, including Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have said that the Syrian Kurds will be an essential ground partner for the U.S. in its efforts to undermine the Islamic State. Even U.S.-backed Syrian rebel groups, which have their own suspicions about the Kurds’ territorial ambitions and have previously fought against the PYD alongside the Islamic State, believe that Kobani had to be saved to prove that the U.S. and its international partners could move quickly against ISIS. Hundreds of fighters with the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army coalition have been fighting in Kobani alongside the PYD, Syrian sources and militant researchers told The Huffington Post last week.

U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army fighters will have to be more conciliatory with the Syrian Kurds and open to their demands for broader autonomy following the struggle in Kobani, despite their suspicion that the Kurds carved out territory by tacitly avoiding the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Barkey said.

“Whether grudgingly or not, everybody now in the region will have to take note of the fact that these guys withstood an immense ISIS attack,” Barkey said. “So if you are Free Syrian Army folks, you’re going to have to look at these guys with much more respect — they’ve done something you have not ever been able to do.”

The Syrian Kurdish PYD is also increasingly important to the U.S. because of its relationship with another partner against ISIS, the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq.

Syrian Kurds have historically had a tense relationship with the leadership of the Iraqi Kurds. Massoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, has embraced a tribal ideology much more conservative than that of the leftist PYD, and developed close ties with Turkey to export the oil that is his region’s lifeline.

When the crisis in Kobani was at its worst last week, Syrian Kurds were critical of Barzani for failing to help them sooner, according to Civiroglu, the Washington-based analyst who reported on PYD-U.S. cooperation this week.

But events are forcing the two groups closer — a development that would be helpful for a U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State.

“The PYD and the [Iraqi Kurds] need each other too much in the fight against ISIS, so any jostling for regional ascendancy or control of the wider Kurdish movement will have to wait until after the immediate ISIS threat fades,” said Max Hoffman, a national security analyst at the Center for American Progress.

In a joint email to The Huffington Post, Hoffman and a colleague at the Center for American Progress, Michael Werz, said they believe the international community is likely to develop stronger ties with the PYD in the months ahead regardless of Turkish arguments. Turkey’s stance, they said, is self-defeating, costing it the chance to improve its relationship with Kurds across the region and risking its own domestic peace process with the PKK.

Hoffman noted that the Syrian Kurdish group also controls another region in Syria — Jazira Canton, which can be directly resupplied from Iraqi Kurdistan.

But working with this increasingly important partner against ISIS will require long-term planning, Barkey said.

He said the U.S. and its allies must prepare for what the Syrian Kurds might eventually ask in exchange for their cooperation against ISIS. He noted PYD and PKK fighters aided the U.S. in its fight to save the Yazidis trapped on Mount Sinjar in Iraq in August.

“It’s going to be very hard for the United States down the road,” Barkey said — particularly if, as many of the U.S.-backed rebels demand, the U.S.-led coalition ultimately helps remove the current Syrian government.

“If Assad disappears tomorrow, the Kurds will come out and say, ‘We want our autonomous region.’ It’s going to be very hard for the United States to come back and say, ‘We don’t like you’ because they’re terrorists,” Barkey said, referring to the PYD’s link with the PKK.

The Huffington Post.

Russian hackers use ‘zero-day’ to #hack #NATO, #Ukraine in cyber-spy campaign

Microsoft says it will release a patch on Oct. 14 for the vulnerability that the Russian hackers group has exploited.Microsoft says it will release a patch on Oct. 14 for the vulnerability that the Russian hackers group has exploited. (KACPER PEMPEL/REUTERS)

Ellen Nakashima reporting,

A Russian hacking group probably working for the government has been exploiting a previously unknown flaw in Microsoft’s Windows operating system to spy on NATO, the Ukrainian government, a U.S. university researcher and other national security targets, according to a new report.

The group has been active since at least 2009, according to research by iSight Partners, a cybersecurity firm. Its targets in the recent campaign also included a Polish energy firm, a Western European government agency and a French telecommunications firm.

“This is consistent with espionage activity,” said iSight Senior Director Stephen Ward. “All indicators from a targeting and lures perspective would indicate espionage with Russian national interests.”

There is no indication that the group was behind a recent spate of intrusions into U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Ward said.

The Russian government has denied similar allegations of cyber-espionage in the past. Current and former U.S. intelligence officials, nonetheless, say the capabilities of Russian hackers are on par with those of the United States and Israel.

“It’s possible they’ve become more active in response to the Ukrainian situation,” said a former intelligence official. “And when you become more active, you increase your likelihood of getting caught.”

ISight dubbed the recently detected hacking group SandWorm because of references embedded in its code to the science-fiction novel “Dune.” There were various mentions in Russian to the fictional desert planet of Arrakis, for instance.

The Ukrainian government was hacked in late August, in the lead-up to the NATO summit in Wales, where member states discussed Russia’s actions in Ukraine.The Ukrainian government was hacked in late August, in the lead-up to the NATO summit in Wales, where member states discussed Russia’s actions in Ukraine. © AFP

The firm began monitoring the hackers’ activity in late 2013 and discovered the vulnerability — known as a “zero-day” — in August, Ward said. The flaw is pres­ent in every Windows operating system from Vista to 8.1, he said, except Windows XP.

The Ukrainian government was targeted in late August, in the lead-up to the NATO summit in Wales, where member states discussed Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Using a technique called spearphishing, SandWorm sent e-mails to targets that appeared to come from legitimate sources but included attachments that, when opened, enabled the hackers to gain access to their computers, Ward said.

Some of the spearphishing e-mails appeared to concern a global security forum on Russia and a purported list of Russian sympathizers or “terrorists,” the firm said.

ISight technical analyst Drew Robinson said the firm attributed the campaign to Russia partly because of the targets and partly because the command server, located in Germany, had not been properly secured. The server was inadvertently exposing Russian-language computer files that had been uploaded by the hackers.

“They could have closed it off, and they didn’t,” he said of the server. “It was poor operational security.”

ISight was not able to determine how successful the hackers might have been in obtaining information. But Robinson said that by analyzing the malware files, iSight was able to determine that certain targets — including Ukrainian government servers — had been compromised.

SandWorm apparently adapted malware previously used by cybercriminals, probably as a way “to mask” its espionage intents, Ward said.

Microsoft plans to release a patch for the vulnerability Tuesday, as part of the security industry’s monthly “Patch Tuesday” — a coordinated release of fixes to vulnerabilities in software.

A Microsoft spokeswoman said the firm’s patch will be released in security bulletin MS14-060.

The Washington Post.

#Turkey: #NATO has plan to defend the country. #IslamicState

Turkish forces on armoured vehicles at the outskirts of Suruc, secure the border area with Syria, background, Monday, Oct. 6, 2014.Turkish forces on armoured vehicles at the outskirts of Suruc, secure the border area with Syria, background, Monday, Oct. 6, 2014. Kobani, also known as Ayn Arab and its surrounding areas have been under attack since mid-September, with militants capturing dozens of nearby Kurdish villages. The flag is indicating that the jihadists may have regrouped and broken through the Kurdish lines. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

Suzan Fraser reporting,

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — The NATO alliance has drawn up a strategy to defend Turkey if it is attacked along its border with Syria, a Turkish official said Monday.

Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz, whose country is a NATO member, said the alliance did that at his government’s request as Islamic State militants, who have captured a large swath of Iraq and Syria, are trying to take the Syrian town of Kobani near the Turkish border.

“If there is an attack, NATO’s joint defense mechanisms will be activated,” Yilmaz told reporters. “From the moment the incidents relating to Syria first started, we asked NATO to prepare for possibilities to make plans. NATO prepared a plan taking various alternatives into account.”

“Therefore,” he said, “if there is an attack on Turkey, NATO will bring about the provisions of Article 5 of the Washington Convention.” Article 5 states that an attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against all members.

NATO’s new secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, appeared to confirm what Turkey was saying during a news conference in Warsaw, Poland, on Monday.

After expressing concern about the violence in Syria and the fact that it has spilled over into Iraq, he said: “The main responsibility for NATO is to protect all allied countries. Turkey is a NATO ally and our main responsibility is to protect the integrity, the borders of Turkey, and that’s the reason why we have deployed Patriot missiles in Turkey to enhance, to strengthen their air defense of Turkey. And Turkey should know that NATO will be there if there is any spillover, any attacks on Turkey as a consequence of the violence we see in Syria.”

Kurdish forces are defending Kobani, but two banners of the Islamic State group were raised over a building and a nearby hill on Monday, suggesting that the militants may have broken through the Kurdish perimeter.

(AP correspondents Vanessa Gera in Warsaw and John-Thor Dahlburg in Brussels contributed).

The Associated Press.


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